The Film Awards Tracking Database

Coming up:

Release Data from Box Office Mojo. Subject to change.

1/7 CCAs

1/8 OFCS awards

DGA noms

1/10 CAS, WGA noms announced

1/11 ACE Eddie noms and ADG noms announced

1/12 LAFC awards

1/13 Globes

1/14 PGA noms announced

1/16 BAFTA noms announced

1/22 AMPAS noms announced

1/26 DGA awards

1/27 SAG awards

2/2 PGA awards

2/9 AMPAS Sci/Tech awards

WGA awards

2/10 BAFTA and VES awards

2/16 CAS awards

2/17 ACE Eddie awards

2/24 Oscar night!

Notes from your friendly neighborhood tracker

1/20 Down to the wire!

The guilds are beginning to weigh in, the Globes--in their pathetic, news conference state--are over and AMPAS noms are due Tuesday morning!

So here are the final stats going into the home stretch.

No Country remains at the top of the heap, despite its Globes loss. Juno, since going wide, has racked up huge box office, so I'm betting it will be in the top five. There Will Be Blood seems to be picking up every award possible for Daniel Day-Lewis, but it's still not cracking many BP lists, though the PGA and DGA noms are definitely good. Given its low box office (which, admittedly, is still a result of low distribution), I'm guessing it won't make it, but it's a solid #6, and could easily sneak in. Michael Clayton, on the other hand, is about to do a re-expansion, so it might be on enough radars to get something. Sweeney Todd has finally made its budget back, and Charlie Wilson's War is getting close to that. Both are in respectable enough positions to be plausible nominees, though of the two, Sweeney has the best chance. Despite some naysayers, Atonement is still in very good shape, and will undoubtedly make the final five. While one of the above may push it out, I simply can't see either The Diving Bell or Into the Wild (the most oft-cited candidates) beating it out.

The Tracker is now split into three groups. The A group are the ones I think will definitely get a nom. The B group are duking it out for the #5 slot, and the C group are the out-of-left-field ones. And no, I'm not putting The Diving Bell anywhere in there, because I don't think enough of AMPAS has even seen it.

The Tracker's formula has been pretty consistent since I started it four years ago, but of course, anything can (and often does) happen. We'll see on Tuesday!

1/2 Happy 2008!

The studios are probably all still nestled snug in their beds for the rest of the week, but come Monday, expect a massive onslaught of pimpage.

Among the pimpage, I expect something for The Great Debaters. Going strictly by the rules of the Tracker, it's on there, but given its dismal precursor showing thusfar, it's really not going anywhere. Still, it is a WeinCo property, so there's never any counting them out. I'll have the rest of the field sorted into A and B groups this weekend, once Atonement has had a chance to get a bit more BO.

Looks like the Globes are on as a show, but exactly how interesting they'll be with nothing but picket line crossers is anyone's guess. The CCAs and the BAFTAs, however, are full steam ahead.

12/29 Year's end--almost

A few loose ends still to tie up, but generally speaking, the ducks are lining up, if not yet in a neat row. I've mostly fleshed out the awards pages, at least for the frontrunners, and that's caused a bit of movement on the Tracker. I've added Juno, Eastern Promises and Into The Wild back into the main tracker, despite their relatively-low box office. The latter two I don't really expect a BP nom from, but Juno has an excellent chance if Sweeney, Charlie or Gangster keep underperforming.

There Will Be Blood, the last big release of the year, has finally made its qualifying debut. No clue at all what box office will look like by the time noms roll around, but given the precursor attention it's gotten so far, it's undoubtedly a contender. That said, can a single, frontrunning performance bring in a BP nom? We'll see. The Great Debaters has OK ratings, but I just can't see it beating out any of the rest of the field. I may change my mind if it hauls in box office, but I'm going to wait a week before I go putting it on any charts. The Bucket List is definitely being thrown in the bucket. Ugh. Didn't we get enough of Jack Nicholson telling everyone he's old in the last several films he's made? Sheesh.

I'll probably split the main Tracker into A and B groups when the final holiday weekend numbers are in later next week.

With the Globes ceremony in serious doubt and, potentially, the AMPAS ceremony as well, it could be that awards fiends may get more than the usual dog-and-pony at the CCAs this weekend. Should be interesting.

12/16 Brief update

Updated Tracker stats. Not a lot more going on right now until we start seeing box office for Sweeney and Charlie. I have very, very rudimentary stuff up on the awards page, now. Will fill all that in later this week.

I do, however, have a BP predictions list! I'm going to go with my initial gut guesses from a few weeks ago:

Atonement
No Country for Old Men
Charlie Wilson's War
Sweeney Todd
American Gangster

Alts: There Will be Blood (if Denzel cancels himself out) or Juno (if it soaks up a bunch of box office post-Globe noms.) Yes, that's two Unis and a Focus, which is a lot, but unless Warner or WeinCo manage to light some fires under their stuff, that's what we'll get.

12/13 Globe noms!

Are in! The love, as usual for the Globes, was definitely spread around, but high concentrations for Atonement and Charlie Wilson's War bode quite well for their AMPAS chances. On Sunday's usual update, I'll probably do my first real list of predictions. Will also have more sections of the site fleshed out by then. Stay tuned!

12/9 Heating up

A small lull in things before the big pre-Christmas blast. The Golden Compass, despite a massive ad push, is turning in blah numbers. It will surely be in contention for techs, but not much else. Grace is Gone is probably the best-rated film of John Cusack's recent career, but it's still anemic enough to miss the tracker. Given the large field of Actor candidates, I don't think he'll make it in there, either.

Atonement and Juno, however, both got some great numbers, so they're up; Atonement on the main Tracker and Juno on the small films one, as it's going to have to struggle for box office. I expect writing noms, though.

Early word on Charlie Wilson's War and Sweeney Todd has been great for both. I'm not quite ready to make serious predictions, but I'm going to go out on a limb right now and assume that those two, plus Atonement and No Country... (especially as it picked up film of the month from the BFCA) will likely be in the BP/BD ranks. Number five? Possibly American Gangster, but will Denzel cancel himself out with The Great Debaters, thus leaving an opening for There Will Be Blood?

I've started making some very rudimentary guesses on the Categories page. Will have that and the awards pages more fleshed out soon.

12/2 The Race is On!

Spirit awards nominations came out last week, as did Satellite and Gotham. BIFA winners also came in, though those are on the British time schedule and therefore include several 2006 U.S. releases. Atonement, Juno, The Savages, I'm Not There and Before the Devil... all made good showings at the various fests. A full accounting of who got what will come when the Awards pages launch later this week.

Not much movement on the Tracker this time. All current residents are still there, although No Country... is going to have to pull in more box office or it risks getting forgotten.

In new releases, The Savages and The Diving Bell... both have good critical scores, but are still in very limited release. I'll wait for their expansions to see how they're really doing.

Early word on The Golden Compass has been decidedly mixed, while Atonement is doing quite well so far. Next week's update will probably include the latter on the Tracker.

11/25 More Movement

In a bit of a surprise (though perhaps not for ardent Amy Adams fans), Enchanted has managed some amazing ratings numbers. Despite being out of the usual AMPAS-friendly genre, I'm going to add it to the Tracker anyway. I don't think it'll make the final five, but I think it'll definitely hit the Globes and probably pick up several noms, if not wins, for Adams.

Plenty of more serious fare has crashed and burned, however: August Rush, Southland Tales, Margot at the Wedding and Love in the time of Cholera are all out, with dreadful ratings.

Before the Devil Knows You're Dead is debuting on the Also-Ran chart. It has decent ratings and some big names, but it will probably ultimately drown in the flood of the bigger studios and bigger bait. Likewise, I'm Not There has good numbers and buzz for Cate Blanchett, but it remains to be seen whether it will break out of the arthouse, so it's in the Small Films chart for now.

I've bumped Hairspray and The Bourne Ultimatum off into the Also-Ran chart. Enchanted is going to take the glow of any AMPAS charity toward musical comedies, and Uni will undoubtedly push American Gangster over their summer action flick, however great its ratings and box office.

Beowulf has decent enough numbers to be added to the Animated race (for which it is an official entry), though I suspect it won't actually win.

On the horizon, The Savages, Juno and Atonement all have good early numbers. We'll see where those go.

After next weekend's releases, I'll do a preliminary guess on the top 10.

11/11 The Wheels are Cranking

More additions and movement on The Tracker!

With an impressive box office debut, American Gangster is now on the Tracker. Its ratings are a little weak, but given the genre, studio and people involved, it'll definitely show up somewhere at the end of the year. In the final five? Not sure, but the name will definitely be bandied about.

Also added to the Tracker is No Country for Old Men. Still in limited release until the 21st, the box office for the Coens' return to form is accordingly small. Ratings, however are fantastic, including a 91 from the BFCA, a number that should mean it'll show up in their year-end fest.

Gone Baby Gone has been moved to the Small Films chart, pending further box office, which I honestly don't think will come. Before the Devil Knows You're Dead is doing a small expansion. It has good ratings, but I suspect it won't get big enough to really make a dent. Will see where it goes after it has a full expansion in a couple of weeks. It may well make the small films chart, as a potential contender for Spirits.

With disastrous ratings, Martian Child and Lions for Lambs are both out.

Coming up, Southland Tales, Margot at the Wedding and Love in the Time of Cholera have some bad early ratings. I'm Not There looks promising, however.

The Contenders page is now more or less functional. More films and links will be added soon. More updates to the rest of the site are coming later this week!

10/26 Once More unto the Breach!

Welcome to the 2007 edition of the site!

The Tracker is now up and running, and the other sections of the site will be launched soon.

This has, so far, been a banner year for good ratings. Several films already released have made the Tracker's ratings and box office criteria, meaning that the big, baity films yet to come already have an uphill battle ahead.

Some notes on current Tracker residents:

Despite its genre, which gives it a warning flag, I'm leaving The Bourne Ultimatum in the main tracker, because of how strong the rest of its numbers are. Uni still has several releases to come this year, but if those fail to perform well, they just might run this as one of their main contenders.

Likewise, Hairspray, while considerably fluffier than AMPAS voters usually like, nonetheless has good numbers and a likely shot at a Globe win, so it's in.

3:10 to Yuma probably won't stay on the Tracker forever. It's just not strong enough for an early-season release, though it undoubtedly will get some consideration. It'll probably end up as a B group listing when I start splitting and ranking the Tracker, unless Lion's has something else that becomes their frontrunner.

Michael Clayton and Gone, Baby, Gone are both new releases, sitting in the Tracker on their ratings numbers for the next few weeks as they gain box office.

Of the small films, I expect only Eastern Promises to really make a showing at year's end. Buzz for star Viggo Mortensen is so strong that he'll probably bring some awards for the rest of the film with him. The Namesake also may pick up some writing noms here and there.

In the also-rans, I expect some writing buzz around Knocked Up, although Apatow's other film this year, Superbad, may well split some votes for him.