|
|
|
How each of the contenders is faring critically and financially |
A full list of 2008's releases of note, by release date, with links to trailers and info pages |
The Categories Top Contenders in each of the main categories |
Base data, analysis and more |
|
Notes from your friendly neighborhood tracker 1/21 Final guesses on the Categories Just in the nick of time, I managed to throw up some guesses on the Categories page. The Contenders page is also somewhat fleshed out, though not nearly as much as I'd like it to be. We'll see what happens in the morning! 1/17 Final Ranking Noms are next week! The final pre-nom updates to the Tracker have been made, and I've now ordered the main box by the films' likelihood of getting a nom. Note that Gran Torino is in the main box, now that it's gone wide, though I really, really don't see it getting anything. Note also that The Reader remains in the also-ran box, and I stand behind that. I may be wrong, but I doubt it. I keep slacking off on updating the other sections, but that WILL be done before nom day. 1/9 Tweaks and such In updating some of the stats today, I noticed that Gran Torino has gone wide, meaning it's probably going to be qualified for the main Tracker box soon. Without much in the way of advance gold, though, the question becomes: Did it get lost in Warner's push for TDK? I'm guessing yes. Either that, or AMPAS is finally sick of Eastwood's ongoing ego projects. But that's probably too much to hope for. I'm still stubbornly leaving The Reader in the also-rans, even though most of the flicks in the main box technically qualify for it still due to box office reasons. I just can't stomach the idea that a film with such low critical acclaim could really get a nom, even if the Weinsteins did personal favors for everyone in AMPAS. I'm going to try to get the other two sections up this weekend and I'll do a final ranking after the Globes. The BFCA win for Slumdog Millionaire probably gives it a lock. Not sure about everything else, yet. 1/4 Happy New Year! The holidays (and all the last-minute releases) are over, so we're back in business for the predicting games. Some of the year's most-hyped films fell over and died this month (Valkyrie, Seven Pounds, The Reader) and some have just barely squeaked by the Tracker's RT cutoff (Benjamin Button, Doubt, Gran Torino, Revolutionary Road), while some smaller films have jumped up and stolen a lot of thunder (Slumdog Millionaire.) Still the usual suspects are all on the Tracker. I've moved Iron Man into the also-rans because there's no way it's beating The Dark Knight if either of the two has a chance at beating out the usual awards bait. That said, the usual awards bait this year is really performing anemically, both critically and in terms of box office. The only two of that group I can say with some certainty will make the final five are Frost/Nixon and Milk. Everything else is anybody's guess. I think TDK is a given at this point, and I think we could even see Wall-E show up there (though that's doubtful; they'd have to double-nom it in the animated category, and I don't see them doing that.) I've been insanely busy with holiday stuff and haven't had a chance to flesh out the other sections of the site, yet, but I'm going to make a concerted effort at doing so sometime in the next week--before the Globes, at least. Speaking of the Globes: To simplify my life, instead of adding a column to the Tracker's table for Globe noms, I'm just giving the film's title a blue highlight if it got a BP nom there. No, I'm not changing what's on the Tracker depending on those noms, btw. The Reader but not TDK or Milk? Yeah, no. I really don't care that it's a WeinCo release or that the BFCA nommed it, too. It's going to get La Winslet her umpteenth nom, but that's about it. 11/30 Finally some updates! Recent releases were kind of underwhelming, but we finally have some tracker additions. Though Milk is still in limited release, I added it to the main tracker, in the assumption that it'll pick up a lot more BO when it goes wide in a couple of weeks. Its other numbers are definitely good enough to put it in the running. Australia, however, didn't fare so well with critics, and neither did Defiance, so they're out of the race. It may pick up some techs, though, particularly for cinematography. Slumdog Millionaire has good reviews, and decent box office for still being in very limited release. We'll see what happens when that goes wider. Bolt has been added to the animated tracker, though it's unlikely that anything will beat Wall-E this year. Frost/Nixon still has excellent review numbers so far. We'll see what box office gives it when it releases. Same goes for Doubt. Most of the year's big films are clotted in late December, though, so it's going to be very hard to get much of an early picture on what's really going on this year. I'm assuming next week's Spirit noms will at least give us some idea of which of the smaller films are likely to break out, but I'd be surprised if the Globes noms coming up in a couple of weeks will actually resemble AMPAS very closely this year. There's just too much out there at the end of the cycle to really get any traction so early. 11/10 Some notes on Tracker criteria As I'm fleshing out the first bits of this year's Tracker, I'm noticing that there's a big potential monkey wrench with RT scores. Since RT was bought out and redesigned, they've added a ton of fly-by-night reviewers to their stable, which has been altering their base scores quite a bit--higher scores for broad-audience stuff, and lower ones to arthouse films and such that might not appeal to some random blogger who thinks he's a critic. For that reason, I'm going to flip the RT/COC ("Top Critics") scores in the tracker from here on out, with the criteria adjusted accordingly. I'll also be giving more weight to the MC scores for similar reasons. So if you're comparing this year's scores with historical data, remember to flip the RT/COC number. Additionally, given the large number of broad comedies and action flicks with high scores this year, I'm tightening up the genre criteria, and thus will be limiting Tracker appearance for those genres to stuff with an RT (CoC, now) score higher than 85 (previously this was 80.) You may notice a severe lack of some of the big-buzz films on the Tracker. Well, sorry, but they didn't hit the criteria. It's still possible that some of them may get a nod or two, but as the Tracker covers BP/BD chances, there's no reason to include, say, Changeling in there if it's basically out of the running. Yes, believe it or not, Iron Man has a better chance, statistically speaking, of getting a BP nod. (It won't; if anything, Dark Knight will get one, but it still fits the criteria better than Changeling does.) In terms of upcoming films, Slumdog Millionaire is getting good early notice. We'll see what that one looks like as reviews continue to come in. 11/7 Welcome to this year's site! Late getting started this time, but there's plenty to come. Stay tuned.
|
|
|
This site is not affiliated with any film award granting body, filmmakers, cast or crew in this year's contention. Please contact talea100 @ gmail.com for comments or corrections to any of the data found herein. All original content copyright 2004-2008. All other items remain copyright their original owners. Big thanks to the gang at AwardsDaily.com for info, support, debates and laughs. |
