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Major Contenders in Bold
Best Picture
Already released
|
Title |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| The Aviator |
Mmx/Warner |
Scorsese, name cast, great technicals, lots of studio power |
Big expectations that may not be met |
| Bad Education |
SPC |
SPC's main horse, Lots of love for Almodovar, Bernal |
Foreign Language, small, NC-17 |
| Closer |
Sony |
Nichols, name cast, adult subject matter |
May be dark, slow, too dry. Reviews less than enthusiastic |
| ESTOSM |
Focus |
Excellent reviews, name cast, Kaufman, very
original, has done well on DVD |
Early release date, unknown director, a little
small |
| F. Neverland |
Mmx |
Great cast, strong lead, charming story |
May be a little too light, Miramax may not fully back it |
| Kinsey |
Searchlight |
Top-line cast and director, salient subject matter, good reviews,
smart studio |
controversial, may be a little too small |
| Maria FoG |
Fine Line |
Great reviews, smart studio, strong lead |
very small, foreign language, unknown cast |
| Million Dollar Baby |
Warner |
Name cast, Eastwood track record, great reviews |
Very late addition to Warner's already-full slate. Bad release date |
| Motorcycle D. |
Focus |
very well-reviewed, good marks for lead |
small, foreign language |
| Ray |
Universal |
Lead is a shoe-in for a nom, good box office, strong studio |
reviews for the whole film are low |
| Sideways |
Searchlight |
Best-reviewed film of the year, arthouse cast |
Very light on techs. Pure critical darlings often don't get in. |
| Spider-Man 2 |
Sony |
Big film, great reviews |
Genre trouble, no standout performances |
| Vera Drake |
Fine Line |
good reviews, smart studio, great lead |
very small, controversial. Most likely just for a lead nom |
| A V. L. Engagement |
WIP |
Lots of good festival attention |
Very small studio, Foreign Language, middling reviews and box
office. |
To be released
|
Title |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Phantom o/t Opera |
Warner |
lovely technicals, good musical candidate, likely to be popular
with audiences |
Warner split support, unknown cast, re-tread material, iffy
director |
| Hotel Rwanda |
UA |
Strong critical support, particularly for the lead |
Very small, inept studio. Might only get an actor nom |
Best Director
Already Released
| Name/Film |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Gondry/ESOTSM |
Focus |
Very creative and original work. May get in if the whole film ends
up being popular. |
No track record, very unknown |
| Condon/Kinsey |
Searchlight |
Great track record, great film |
Film might not be quite up to snuff. |
| Payne/Sideways |
Searchlight |
Good track record, amazing reviews |
Film is very small. Payne might have to content himself with a
Screenplay nom |
| Raimi/S-M 2 |
Sony |
Raimi is a skilled director whose work has been overlooked because
of its genre. The geek vote may go for him. |
He still has a lot of work to do to get really appreciated beyond
his genre. |
| Linklater/B. Sunset |
WIP |
A breakout achievement from a maverick director |
WIP has its hands full, and Linklater might not be considered mature
enough yet. |
| Almodovar/Bad Education |
SPC |
The Directors love him |
He won recently, and there's some very stiff competition against a
small film. |
| Nichols/Closer |
Sony |
Great track record, lots of respect |
The film itself may not connect |
To be released
|
Title |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Scorsese/The Aviator |
Mmx/Warner |
Scorsese is very overdue, and the film looks fairly decent |
Will the film measure up to itself, or is this another GONY? |
| Eastwood/Million Dollar Baby |
Warner |
It's Eastwood and Warner. Powerful combination |
No one has any idea why this film got suddenly released, and
Eastwood was just nommed last year. |
| Schumacher/Phantom o/t Opera |
Warner |
This is Warner's big horse. They'll be backing him. |
C'mon, it's Schumacher |
| Anderson/The Life Aquatic |
Touchstone |
Similar to Linklater, he's a hip director doing a bigger film than
usual. |
He might still be thought of as a wildcard punk who needs to prove
himself a little more, and it remains to be seen how the film is
recieved. |
Best Actor
Already Released
| Name/Film |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Foxx/Ray |
Universal |
He's been considered a front runner since before the film was in
the can. He really carries the film. |
A lock for a nom at this point, but can he make the win? |
| Giamatti/Sideways |
Searchlight |
Just missed a nom last year. This may be what he needs to get in. |
At this point, few cons for a nom, but he probably won't win. |
| Depp/FN |
Miramax |
Waited on the sidelines last year while Penn got his due. This
year it may be someone else's turn to wait for Johnny. |
He will surely get a nom, but can he make the win? |
| DiCaprio/Aviator |
Miramax |
If he pulls off the role, it could be the final thing necessary to
get him his first nom. |
Can he pull it off, or will he seem too young in the role? |
| Cheadle/Hotel Rwanda |
UA |
Lots of huge buzz |
Is the film going to be seen by enough people? |
| Neeson/Kinsey |
Searchlight |
Powerhouse role for a critical darling |
If the film itself doesn't make a big enough splash, he probably
won't go far. |
| Bardem/Sea Inside |
Fine Line |
Another powerhouse role carrying buzz just under the surface |
|
| Carrey/ESOTSM |
Focus |
Bill Murray got a nom last year for being a comedian breaking out of
type. Carrey's dramatic work has always gotten good word. This may be
what he needs to finally spill over. |
There's an awful lot of competition, and Carrey's reputation in
Hollywood isn't all that great. |
| Eastwood/MDB |
Warner |
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| Cruise/Collateral |
Dreamworks |
A lot of people argue he's overdue. He's also playing against type
for once. |
The film's genre isn't terribly award-friendly and he's not
being buzzed at all. |
| Bernal/TMD |
Focus |
Very well-recieved work |
He's awfully young yet, and competing against himself (Bad
Education) |
| Hawke/BS |
WIP |
The film and its two leads recieved a lot of good critical attention |
This is Hawke's first successful role in years. The competition is
very dense, and WIP is very inexperienced. |
| Braff/Garden State |
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His film got great notices and he's fairly well-liked. |
Far more likely to get a screenplay nom |
| Law/Closer |
Sony |
The film is riddled with stars and a very sophisticated tone that
matches Law's style well. |
Just got nominated last year, and the rest of his films this year
have flopped. |
Best Actress
Already Released
| Name/Film |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Imelda Staunton/VD |
Fine Line |
Raves from everywhere. The film is entirely hers. |
She's very unknown, and AMPAS tends to only award older actresses if
they have a long track record. |
| Annette Bening/BJ |
SPC |
Word on the street is that she's the one to beat, because she's
way overdue. |
The film itself is rather weak, and it's not certain enough
people will have seen her work to be able to judge it. |
| Hillary Swank/MDB |
Warner |
Former winner now in another showcase role |
She's won before. Is she really due? |
| Kate Winslet/ESOTSM |
Focus |
Incredibly overdue, and a breakout contemporary piece with her
getting out of the corsets and into an American role. She's very
well-liked. |
Will she have been forgotten by the time nominations roll
around? Is the film too avant-garde? |
| Catalina Moreno/MFoG |
Fine Line |
Dramatic performance from a young girl in a topical film. |
Very young, very unknown, very small film. Although that didn't stop
Keisha Castle-Hughes. |
| Julie Delpy/BS |
WIP |
One of the two main leads that carry one of the most highly-rated
films of the year. |
Not much of a track record for her otherwise. |
| Uma Thurman/KB2 |
Mmx |
The field is thin enough that Uma might get caught up just as a
placeholder |
The film isn't exactly academy-friendly, and it's been a long time
since it was released. |
| Audrey Tautou/AVLE |
WIP |
She's a charming thing, and seems completely inoffensive. |
Foreign language film, might not be a strong enough contender
against some of the other barely-knowns. |
| Julia Roberts/Closer |
Sony |
She's Julia Roberts, she's always a contender |
She's Julia Roberts, she's always a contender |
| Kyra Sedgwick/Woodsman |
NewMkt |
If the film gets enough attention for Bacon, she might be picked up
with him. |
Very small film, and not a great track record for her past work. |
| Emmy Rossum/POTO |
Warner |
Warner will be pushing the daylights out of her. Her lovely singing
might help, too. |
Emmy who? Pretty and a lovely singer, but can she do anything
besides be a gamine crooner? |
Best Supporting Actor
| Name/Film |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Thomas Haden Church/Sideways |
Searchlight |
He's winning everything so far |
Track record? What track record? |
| Morgan Freeman/MDB |
Warner |
Powerful role in a powerful film, he's wayyyy overdue |
Some have said the role is a bit stereotypical |
| Peter Saarsgaard/Kinsey |
Searchlight |
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| Freddie Highmore/FN |
Miramax |
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| Liev Schrieber/TMC |
Paramount |
Streep's almost certain nom could carry Schrieber along with her.
He's been watched for a while and is fairly well-liked. |
The film itself underperformed and his role might therefore
be forgotten. |
| James Garner/The Notebook |
New Line |
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Best Supporting Actress
| Name/Film |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Virginia Madsen/Sideways |
Searchlight |
She's been winning almost everything. |
She has a very spotty track record, and the film is still smallish |
| Cate Blanchett/Aviator |
Miramax |
Way overdue; her impression of Kate Hepburn is supposedly
practically flawless |
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| Natalie Portman/Closer |
Sony |
She's done consistently good work in most of her roles |
She's still very young |
| Meryl Streep/TMC |
Paramount |
She's Meryl Streep. And she really did kick ass in the role. |
Is AMPAS tired of her yet? |
| Kate Winslet/FN |
Miramax |
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| Sharon Warren/Ray |
Uni |
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| Regina King/Ray |
Uni |
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| Cloris Leachman/Spanglish |
Sony |
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| Minnie Driver/POTO |
Warner |
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Best Original Screenplay
| Name/Film |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Kaufman/ESOTSM |
Focus |
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| John Logan/The Aviator |
Miramax |
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| Bad Education |
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| Hotel Rwanda |
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| Incredibles |
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| Kinsey |
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| Ray |
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| The Sea Inside |
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| Spanglish |
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| Vera Drake |
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| Garden State |
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Best Adapted Screenplay
| Name/Film |
Studio |
Pros |
Cons |
| Payne/Sideways |
Searchlight |
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| MDB |
Warner |
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| Before Sunset |
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| Closer |
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| The Door in the Floor |
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| Finding Neverland |
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| TMD |
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| The Notebook |
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| AVLE |
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| Mean Girls |
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| Shrek 2 |
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