Film Awards Tracking Database 2004

Updated Jan 18th

The Main Contenders

"Small" Films-- These are films whose ratings numbers are good, but whose budget/box office/studio is small enough to seriously handicap them. This includes all films with box office under $20m, well after release, and anything which isn't from an established major or mini-major. If their box office reaches $20m, they will be put in the main box again.

These films are still contenders, but they have to hope that the higher-profile films fail to impress to get enough attention to be in serious play. Something like wild card candidates in sports playoffs.

*= Limited release (less than ~500 theaters)

The Also Rans

These are the films with three or more strikes (the turquoise highlighted items) against them, which basically takes them out of BP consideration, though they may have potential for other noms. Stats for these will be updated monthly.

Stats as of Jan 10th:

+= Likely animated or foreign language nom

Eliminated so far:

Special Cases:

• Hero is not eligible for award consideration
• F 9/11 is not likely to get a nom, given the outcome of the election.
• TPOTC has RT and MC scores wayyyy too low to be in serious contention, despite its high domestic box office. It's simply not a good enough film to overcome the controversy surrounding it.

Notes:

Only major-released non-documentaries with more than 50 RT reviews and an RT score above 70 are included in this chart.

Italics represent films which are still in major release. Box office for these films will be updated weekly, normally on Monday or Tuesday. All other films will be updated monthly. Titles in bold have been added this week.

Yellow Highlights indicate the current  leaders in that column

Turquoise Highlighted items are problem areas for the film:

• Studio = Very small or new studios don't have the resources to mount large campaigns. Note also that some larger studios have a lot of other horses in the race, which means they're not likely to back anything which is an underperformer in other areas if they have something stronger to run.
• Genre = The vast majority of BP-nominated films are dramas or epics. A small handful are smart adult-aimed comedies. Musicals, once long-dormant, have started getting attention again, but they still have to be extraordinary. The animated/children's genre has its own category, action films are rarely given much attention unless they have serious dramatic undertones or qualify as an epic. Also to note that when there are a large number of a certain kind of film, like epics, or bio pics (very big this year) competition gets even tighter among that genre, and films which otherwise might be considered contenders often get edged out by a film which "did the genre better."
• PG = Not usually adult enough subject matter to appeal to AMPAS voters, especially with the animated category in play now
• Release Date = Films released before about September usually have to be extraordinary to overcome the fact that they fade from voters' minds by the time nomination ballots come due
• Low box office = Not enough people have seen the film to be able to vote for it. Only truly outstanding films with noteworthy cast or directors or a gung-ho studio can overcome a film which makes less than about $20 mil pre-nomination.
• Low box office relative to budget = the film is considered a financial flop, which usually cuts it out of consideration.
• Low RT scores = Especially in CoC reviews, this means a film just isn't considered good enough by critics. Below 70 almost nothing makes it in, especially now that Miramax doesn't have the firepower it used to to get past issues like that.
• Low MC scores = An MC score gives a better idea of how strongly positive the reviews in question actually were. A low score, even for a film with high RT Freshness, means the film has only tepid appreciation, and isn't likely to end up on critics' top ten lists or recieve critics' awards. Below 75 is a danger zone, and only films with a lot more going for them can overcome that. Conversely, anything with a score over 85 can easily be considered a frontrunner, if it has no other major hits against it.
• Low BFCA scores = While there have been some films that have made it in with a BFCA score under ~85, they've all been from big studios which can push the heck out of them, or have had another major factor in their favor. Low BFCA scores mean its unlikely to get a nom at the CCAs, which is an important precursor.

Obviously, the more hits a film has against it, the less likely it is to make it into a BP slot, but there are still chances for other nominations if there's something extraordinarily good about it in another category.

Past BP Data

For the sake of comparison (note that box office is pre-nomination):

2003

2002

2001

2000

1999

More historical data will be added later as needed

Note that monetary amounts are rounded to the nearest tenth