Note that the highlight colors have changed! Yellow now
indicates problem areas, green indicates the current leader in the
column.
New!
Blue Text = Average scores more
than
90 (RT, BFCA) or 85 (MC); box office more than $50m; b/o-to-budget
more than
200%
The Main Contenders
These are the films that are the strongest contenders for major
categories, particularly BP and BD, based on their critical and
audience acclaim, and other factors.
Stats updated 1/31
A Group
These are the films that have the strongest BP chances, in order.
These are films that have good ratings, but their
budget/box
office/studio is small enough to seriously handicap them. This includes most
films with box office less than $25m, well after release, which isn't expected to
expand. If their box office reaches $25m, they will be put in the main
box again.
These films are still contenders, and have a chance for smaller noms, but they have to hope that the
higher-profile films fail to impress to get enough attention to be in serious
play for major categories. Something like wild card candidates in sports playoffs.
These are the films with three or more strikes (the yellow highlighted
items) against them, which basically takes them out of BP consideration,
though they may have potential for other noms. Stats for these will
be updated monthly.
Wide-release films (more
than 100 theaters) with an RT score above 70, with more than 50 reviews.
Docos, foreign and animated films will be included in the tracker only
if their scores and box office are particularly high. Films whose
genre isn't normally Oscar-friendly (action, sci-fi, etc.) will be
included on the main tracker only if their RT score is 80 or above,
and will otherwise land on the also-ran table if they meet the
general criteria. Films with
less than 100 theaters may be included if they are a major release
expected to go wider.
Footnotes
+ = BFCA film of the month * = Limited release (less than ~500 theaters) # = Projection. Actuals updated Mondays Bold = Title has been added this week Italics = Title is still on wide release
Green Highlights
indicate the current leaders in that column (when there are
three or more films listed) Leaders for RT numbers are based on
RT/CoC average. Leaders for budget numbers are based on box
office-to-budget ratio. For example: Sin City's box office is 185%
of its budget.
Yellow
Highlights are problem areas for the film. By the column
they're in:
Studio = Very small or new studios don't have the resources
to mount large campaigns. Note also that some larger
studios have a lot of other horses
in the race, which means they're not likely to back anything which
is an underperformer in other areas if they have something stronger
to run.
Genre = The vast majority of BP-nominated films are dramas or
epics. A small handful are smart adult-aimed comedies. Musicals,
once long-dormant, have started getting attention again, but they
still have to be extraordinary. The animated/children's genre has
its own category and action films are rarely given much attention unless
they have serious dramatic undertones or qualify as an epic. Also
to note that when there are a large number of a certain kind of
film, like epics, or bio pics (very big last year) competition gets
even tighter among that genre, and films which otherwise might be
considered contenders often get edged out by a film which "did the
genre better."
Rating = G or PG means usually not adult enough subject matter to appeal to AMPAS
voters, especially with the animated category in play now.
Adult-aimed films with those ratings will remain un-tagged.
Release Date = Films released before about September usually
have to be extraordinary to overcome the fact that they fade from
voters' minds by the time nomination ballots come due
Low box office relative to budget = the film is considered a
financial flop, which usually cuts it out of consideration.
Low box office = Not enough people have seen the film to be
able to vote for it. Only truly outstanding films with noteworthy
cast or directors or a gung-ho studio can overcome a film which
makes less than about $25 mil pre-nomination.
Low RT scores = Especially in CoC reviews (which are
from well-established pro critics), this means a film
just isn't considered good enough by critics. Below 75 is
cause for concern, and below 70 almost nothing makes it in,
especially now that the age of Miramax is over.
Low MC scores = An MC score gives a better idea of how strongly
positive the reviews in question actually were. A low score, even
for a film with high RT Freshness, means the film has only tepid
appreciation, and isn't likely to end up on critics' top ten lists
or recieve critics' awards. Below 75 is a danger zone, and only
films with a lot more going for them can overcome that. Below 70
is an almost-certain elimination factor. Conversely,
anything with a score over 85 can easily be considered a frontrunner,
if it has no other major hits against it.
Low BFCA scores = While there have been some films that have
made it in with a BFCA score under ~85, they've all been from big
studios which can push the heck out of them, or have had another
major factor in their favor. Low BFCA scores mean it's unlikely to
get a nom at the CCAs, which is an important precursor.
Obviously, the more hits a film has against it, the less likely
it is to make it into a BP slot, but there are still chances for
other nominations if there's something extraordinarily good about it
in another category, which is why many of the films in question are
still listed on the also-ran table. Whether or not something is
included on the main Tracker is a matter mostly of hard numbers, but
there is some personal discretion used, too. A film with borderline
numbers which is otherwise Oscar-friendly will likely make the
Tracker when a non-Oscar-friendly one might not; a film with a genre
or rating hit with otherwise outstanding numbers may also stay on.
