Film Awards Tracking Database 2008

How to read The Tracker

The Main Contenders

These are the films that are the strongest contenders for major categories, particularly BP and BD, based on their critical and audience acclaim, and other factors. Films are listed in order of release date until final ranking is done in January.

Stats updated 1/17

"Small" Films

These are films that have good ratings, but their budget/box office/studio is small enough to seriously handicap them. This includes most films with box office less than $25m, well after release, that aren't expected to expand. If their box office reaches $25m or they start pulling in a lot of precursors they will be put in the main box again.

These films are still contenders, and have a chance for smaller noms, but they have to hope that the higher-profile films fail to impress to get enough attention to be in serious play for major categories--something like wild card candidates in sports playoffs.

The Animated Race

The Also Rans

These are the films with three or more strikes (the yellow highlighted items) against them, which basically takes them out of BP consideration, though they may have potential for other noms. Stats for these will be updated monthly.

Stats updated : 1/17

How to Read the Tracker

Wide-release films (more than 100 theaters) with an RT score of 70 or more, with more than 50 reviews. Docos, foreign and animated films will be included in the tracker only if their scores and box office are particularly high. Films whose genre isn't normally Oscar-friendly (action, sci-fi, broad comedy, etc.) will be included on the main tracker only if their RT score is 80 or above, and they don't have any strikes other than release date. They will otherwise land on the also-ran table if they meet the general criteria. Films with less than 100 theaters may be included if they are a major release expected to go wider.

Footnotes

+ = BFCA nominee
*  = Limited release (less than ~500 theaters)
# = Projection. Actuals updated Mondays
Bold = Title has been added this week
Italics = Title is still on wide release
Blue Text = Average scores more than 90 (RT, BFCA) or 85 (MC); box office more than $50m; b/o-to-budget more than 200%
Blue Highlight: Golden Globe BP nominee

Green Highlights indicate the current leaders in that column (when there are three or more films listed) Leaders for RT numbers are based on RT/CoC average. Leaders for budget numbers are based on box office-to-budget ratio. For example: Sin City's box office was 185% of its budget.

Yellow Highlights are problem areas for the film. By the column they're in:

• Studio = Very small or new studios don't have the resources to mount large campaigns. Note also that some larger studios have a lot of other horses in the race, which means they're not likely to back anything which is an underperformer in other areas if they have something stronger to run.
• Genre = The vast majority of BP-nominated films are dramas or epics. A small handful are smart adult-aimed comedies. Musicals, once long-dormant, have started getting attention again, but they still have to be extraordinary. The animated/children's genre has its own category and action films are rarely given much attention unless they have serious dramatic undertones or qualify as an epic. Also to note that when there are a large number of a certain kind of film, like epics, or bio pics (very big last year) competition gets even tighter among that genre, and films which otherwise might be considered contenders often get edged out by a film which "did the genre better."
• Rating = G or PG means usually not adult enough subject matter to appeal to AMPAS voters, especially with the animated category in play now. Adult-aimed films with those ratings will remain un-tagged.
• Release Date = Films released before about September usually have to be extraordinary to overcome the fact that they fade from voters' minds by the time nomination ballots come due
• Low box office relative to budget = the film is considered a financial flop, which usually cuts it out of consideration.
• Low box office = Not enough people have seen the film to be able to vote for it. Only truly outstanding films with noteworthy cast or directors or a gung-ho studio can overcome a film that makes less than about $25 mil pre-nomination.
• Low RT scores = Especially in CoC reviews (which are from well-established pro critics), this means a film just isn't considered good enough by critics. Below 75 is cause for concern, and below 70 almost nothing makes it in, especially now that the age of Miramax is over.
• Low MC scores = An MC score gives a better idea of how strongly positive the reviews in question actually were. A low score, even for a film with high RT Freshness, means the film has only tepid appreciation, and isn't likely to end up on critics' top ten lists or recieve critics' awards. Below 75 is a danger zone, and only films with a lot more going for them can overcome that. Below 70 is an almost-certain elimination factor. Conversely, anything with a score over 85 can easily be considered a frontrunner, if it has no other major hits against it.
• Low BFCA scores = While there have been some films that have made it in with a BFCA score under ~85, they've all been from big studios that can push the heck out of them, or have had another major factor in their favor. Low BFCA scores mean it's unlikely to get a nom at the CCAs, which is an important precursor.

Obviously, the more hits a film has against it, the less likely it is to make it into a BP slot, but there are still chances for other nominations if there's something extraordinarily good about it in another category, which is why many of the films in question are still listed on the also-ran table. Whether or not something is included on the main Tracker is a matter mostly of hard numbers, but there is some personal discretion used, too. A film with borderline numbers which is otherwise Oscar-friendly will likely make the Tracker when a non-Oscar-friendly one might not; a film with a genre or rating hit with otherwise outstanding numbers may also stay on.

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